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Qual 92025 FIRST Indiana State Championship
Red148
448545.2
44735.3
427278.5
Blue156
46160.3
548430.8
174738.9
86%Model gave it14%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions154115100200250148156

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
Auto+14
0Teleop0
Endgame+10
Fouls+8
AutonomousBlue +14
3Leave6
4Coral scored#6
20Coral points31
23Total auto37
TeleoperatedRed +14
22Coral scored#20
79Coral points73
3Processor algae#1
3Net algae#4
18Processor points6
12Net points16
30Algae points22
109Total teleop95
Reef
10L4#11
7L3#6
5L2#5
4L1 · trough#4
32Game pieces#31
BargeBlue +10
14Cage & park24
14Total endgame24
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalBlue +8
2Foul points0
148Total score156

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
4272
#3
78.50.6
66.3→66.9
Auto18.8
Teleop49.0
End10.8
red by 18.2
461
#5
60.33.0
47.3→50.2
Auto17.5
Teleop35.4
End7.4
Second
4485
#31
45.20.6
42.1→42.7
Auto9.1
Teleop34.4
End1.6
red by 6.3
1747
#16
38.93.0
35.8→38.8
Auto5.4
Teleop26.0
End7.5
Third
447
#34
35.30.6
29.0→29.6
Auto5.2
Teleop23.8
End6.3
red by 4.5
5484
#27
30.83.0
28.2→31.2
Auto5.3
Teleop25.8
End-0.3
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
71%Auto oddsMissed88%Auto oddsEarned
Coral
23%Coral oddsMissed9%Coral oddsEarned
Barge
80%Barge oddsEarned66%Barge oddsEarned