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Red101
155515.6
217120.6
4540.4
Blue77
400817.2
101821.8
172023.7
70%Model gave it30%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions695620408010012010177

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+7Auto
+38Teleop
+36Endgame
+24Fouls
AutonomousRed +7
6Leave6
2Coral scored#1
10Coral points3
16Total auto9
TeleoperatedRed +31
14Coral scored#8
49Coral points28
1Processor algae#0
4Net algae#3
6Processor points0
16Net points12
22Algae points12
71Total teleop40
Reef
6L4#3
5L3#2
3L2#2
2L1 · trough#2
21Game pieces#12
BargeBlue +2
14Cage & park16
14Total endgame16
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +24
0Foul points12
101Total score77

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
45
#4
40.41.6
34.936.5
Auto7.2
Teleop27.9
End5.3
red by 16.7
1720
#27
23.70.4
21.721.4
Auto3.9
Teleop16.7
End3.0
Second
2171
#26
20.61.6
17.318.9
Auto5.1
Teleop13.6
End1.8
blue by 1.3
1018
#17
21.80.4
15.014.5
Auto4.1
Teleop13.5
End4.2
Third
1555
#28
15.61.6
10.311.9
Auto3.2
Teleop9.7
End2.7
blue by 1.6
4008
#40
17.20.4
18.017.6
Auto3.9
Teleop11.1
End2.2
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
38%Auto oddsEarned24%Auto oddsMissed
Coral
4%Coral oddsMissed5%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
33%Barge oddsEarned22%Barge oddsEarned