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Red199
427264.9
348729.0
745771.3
Blue159
761751.9
448540.4
29242.7
85%Model gave it15%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions178139100150200250199159

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+24Auto
+32Teleop
+42Endgame
+40Fouls
AutonomousRed +24
0Leave6
11Coral scored#5
54Coral points24
54Total auto30
TeleoperatedRed +8
19Coral scored#16
67Coral points59
5Processor algae#5
6Net algae#6
30Processor points30
24Net points24
54Algae points54
121Total teleop113
Reef
14L4#8
6L3#6
7L2#5
3L1 · trough#2
41Game pieces#32
BargeRed +10
24Cage & park14
24Total endgame14
Penalties & totalRed +40
0Foul points2
199Total score159

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
71.30.8
70.571.3
Auto17.7
Teleop43.0
End10.6
red by 19.4
7617
#30
51.90.5
51.451.9
Auto10.1
Teleop37.2
End4.6
Second
64.90.8
64.164.9
Auto17.6
Teleop38.7
End8.5
red by 22.2
292
#19
42.70.5
42.142.7
Auto9.2
Teleop31.9
End1.6
Third
3487
#17
29.00.8
28.229.0
Auto6.4
Teleop21.4
End1.2
blue by 11.4
4485
#13
40.40.5
39.840.4
Auto5.8
Teleop32.8
End1.7