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Red257
568778.8
198771.0
170691.0
Blue252
903263.1
30270.7
745797.5
61%Model gave it39%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions258243150200300350257252

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
Auto+21
+11Teleop
+11Endgame
+5Fouls
AutonomousBlue +21
3Leave6
8Coral scored#12
41Coral points59
44Total auto65
TeleoperatedRed +32
35Coral scored#29
125Coral points103
4Processor algae#3
7Net algae#6
24Processor points18
28Net points24
52Algae points42
177Total teleop145
Reef
18L4#17
10L3#12
9L2#9
6L1 · trough#3
54Game pieces#50
Bargelevel
36Cage & park36
36Total endgame36
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +5
0Foul points6
257Total score252

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
1706
#30
91.01.1
92.093.0
Auto19.4
Teleop60.3
End11.3
blue by 6.5
7457
#19
97.51.3
97.198.4
Auto24.3
Teleop61.7
End11.6
Second
5687
#41
78.81.1
77.678.7
Auto23.3
Teleop48.4
End7.1
red by 8.1
302
#15
70.71.3
68.669.9
Auto19.3
Teleop44.7
End6.6
Third
1987
#44
71.01.1
71.272.3
Auto16.6
Teleop46.1
End8.3
red by 7.9
9032
#37
63.11.3
60.862.1
Auto13.3
Teleop44.7
End5.2
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
99%Auto oddsEarned97%Auto oddsEarned
Coral
98%Coral oddsMissed92%Coral oddsEarned
Barge
98%Barge oddsEarned86%Barge oddsEarned