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Red271
276781.2
745797.5
376775.2
Blue259
170691.0
327685.5
18081.8
53%Model gave it47%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions270267220240260280300271259

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, centred to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+39Auto
+8Teleop
+18Endgame
+12Fouls
AutonomousRed +39
6Leave9
14Coral scored#6
70Coral points28
76Total auto37
TeleoperatedBlue +31
29Coral scored#39
105Coral points142
3Processor algae#2
9Net algae#9
18Processor points12
36Net points36
54Algae points48
159Total teleop190
Reef
18L4#14
13L3#15
7L2#11
5L1 · trough#5
55Game pieces#56
BargeRed +10
36Cage & park26
36Total endgame26
Penalties & totalRed +12
0Foul points6
271Total score259

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
7457
#19
97.50.3
97.798.0
Auto24.3
Teleop61.7
End11.6
red by 6.5
1706
#30
91.00.2
90.990.7
Auto19.4
Teleop60.3
End11.3
Second
2767
#25
81.20.3
81.481.7
Auto18.1
Teleop50.8
End12.4
blue by 4.3
85.50.2
85.485.2
Auto8.7
Teleop65.7
End11.1
Third
75.20.3
74.775.0
Auto18.5
Teleop47.4
End9.3
blue by 6.7
180
#18
81.80.2
81.781.6
Auto20.1
Teleop52.1
End9.6