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Red64
711224.9
321131.5
674030.4
Blue118
555424.9
307536.7
338823.7
60%Model gave it40%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions97882040608012014016018064118

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+4Auto
Teleop+38
Endgame+48
Fouls+54
AutonomousRed +4
9Leave3
3Coral scored#3
14Coral points16
23Total auto19
TeleoperatedBlue +42
8Coral scored#15
27Coral points55
1Processor algae#2
1Net algae#3
6Processor points12
4Net points12
10Algae points24
37Total teleop79
Reef
4L4#5
4L3#7
2L2#4
1L1 · trough#2
13Game pieces#23
BargeBlue +10
4Cage & park14
4Total endgame14
Penalties & totalBlue +54
0Foul points6
64Total score118

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
3211
#10
31.50.5
32.131.5
Auto4.8
Teleop25.5
End1.3
blue by 5.2
3075
#11
36.70.7
35.336.0
Auto3.9
Teleop28.3
End4.4
Second
6740
#21
30.40.5
31.030.4
Auto4.7
Teleop23.7
End2.0
red by 5.6
5554
#25
24.90.7
23.524.2
Auto6.4
Teleop18.0
End0.5
Third
7112
#22
24.90.5
25.524.9
Auto6.2
Teleop15.2
End3.5
red by 1.2
23.70.7
22.323.0
Auto6.1
Teleop15.2
End2.3