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Red183
223064.3
157733.2
703952.6
Blue130
194257.4
610423.3
571540.6
81%Model gave it19%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions15512050100200183130

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+28Auto
+31Teleop
+53Endgame
+53Fouls
AutonomousRed +28
9Leave0
8Coral scored#5
42Coral points23
51Total auto23
TeleoperatedRed +3
21Coral scored#19
74Coral points69
1Processor algae#2
4Net algae#3
6Processor points12
16Net points12
22Algae points24
96Total teleop93
Reef
14L4#9
7L3#7
4L2#6
4L1 · trough#2
34Game pieces#29
BargeRed +22
36Cage & park14
36Total endgame14
Penalties & totalRed +53
0Foul points0
183Total score130

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
64.30.8
62.563.4
Auto16.9
Teleop38.1
End9.3
red by 6.9
57.40.2
57.157.3
Auto15.3
Teleop38.1
End3.9
Second
52.60.8
50.851.7
Auto18.0
Teleop26.4
End8.3
red by 12.0
40.60.2
40.240.5
Auto10.0
Teleop27.8
End2.8
Third
1577
#29
33.20.8
31.532.3
Auto7.9
Teleop19.6
End5.8
red by 10.0
6104
#22
23.30.2
22.923.1
Auto3.0
Teleop17.7
End2.5