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Red256
473874.5
31662.7
11186.7
Blue166
186035.4
58180.7
366861.5
82%Model gave it18%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions213168100150200250300256166

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+17Auto
+72Teleop
+92Endgame
+90Fouls
AutonomousRed +17
0Leave3
11Coral scored#7
57Coral points37
57Total auto40
TeleoperatedRed +55
38Coral scored#20
135Coral points72
3Processor algae#3
5Net algae#7
18Processor points18
20Net points28
38Algae points46
173Total teleop118
Reef
20L4#6
10L3#7
11L2#8
8L1 · trough#6
57Game pieces#37
BargeRed +20
26Cage & park6
26Total endgame6
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +90
0Foul points2
256Total score166

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
111
#4
86.73.0
78.181.1
Auto19.3
Teleop56.7
End10.7
red by 6.0
581
#23
80.70.7
74.774.0
Auto18.9
Teleop53.1
End8.7
Second
4738
#11
74.53.0
63.666.7
Auto18.8
Teleop48.6
End7.1
red by 13.1
3668
#30
61.50.7
57.857.1
Auto14.8
Teleop38.8
End7.9
Third
316
#55
62.73.0
58.061.0
Auto18.2
Teleop41.4
End3.1
red by 27.3
1860
#49
35.40.7
31.330.6
Auto5.8
Teleop26.0
End3.6
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
99%Auto oddsEarned96%Auto oddsEarned
Coral
85%Coral oddsEarned41%Coral oddsEarned
Barge
71%Barge oddsEarned95%Barge oddsMissed