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Red166
34243.8
58180.7
971746.4
Blue179
115669.5
635763.3
56424.1
85%Model gave it15%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions191150100200250166179

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+3Auto
+1Teleop
Endgame+19
Fouls+13
AutonomousRed +3
3Leave3
7Coral scored#6
34Coral points31
37Total auto34
TeleoperatedBlue +2
23Coral scored#23
81Coral points81
2Processor algae#3
6Net algae#5
12Processor points18
24Net points20
36Algae points38
117Total teleop119
Reef
10L4#11
9L3#8
7L2#7
4L1 · trough#3
38Game pieces#37
BargeBlue +20
6Cage & park26
6Total endgame26
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalBlue +13
6Foul points0
166Total score179

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
581
#23
80.71.2
81.179.8
Auto18.9
Teleop53.1
End8.7
red by 11.2
1156
#24
69.52.3
60.462.7
Auto15.6
Teleop43.1
End10.7
Second
9717
#48
46.41.2
44.443.1
Auto5.5
Teleop32.7
End8.2
blue by 16.9
6357
#32
63.32.3
57.960.2
Auto8.7
Teleop45.5
End9.1
Third
342
#61
43.81.2
45.043.8
Auto5.7
Teleop33.5
End4.5
red by 19.7
564
#74
24.12.3
17.820.1
Auto3.1
Teleop16.5
End4.5
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
90%Auto oddsEarned70%Auto oddsEarned
Coral
43%Coral oddsMissed49%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
95%Barge oddsMissed57%Barge oddsEarned