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Red69
310237.8
565353.7
96104.1
Blue59
215221.9
346831.8
360615.7
71%Model gave it29%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions95700501502006959

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+7Auto
+12Teleop
+12Endgame
+10Fouls
AutonomousRed +7
9Leave6
1Coral scored#0
4Coral points0
13Total auto6
TeleoperatedRed +5
8Coral scored#8
30Coral points29
1Processor algae#1
4Net algae#3
6Processor points6
16Net points12
22Algae points18
52Total teleop47
Reef
4L4#3
2L3#3
2L2#1
1L1 · trough#1
14Game pieces#12
Bargelevel
4Cage & park4
4Total endgame4
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +10
0Foul points2
69Total score59

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
53.71.4
43.542.1
Auto11.1
Teleop37.7
End4.9
red by 21.9
3468
#11
31.80.9
25.925.0
Auto6.2
Teleop21.5
End4.1
Second
3102
#14
37.81.6
30.528.9
Auto5.4
Teleop27.9
End4.5
red by 15.9
2152
#52
21.91.0
19.118.1
Auto2.7
Teleop16.5
End2.6
Third
9610
#53
4.11.4
5.13.7
Auto0.0
Teleop3.8
End0.3
blue by 11.6
3606
#37
15.71.3
18.717.4
Auto1.7
Teleop12.6
End1.4
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
42%Auto oddsMissed15%Auto oddsMissed
Coral
4%Coral oddsMissed3%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
57%Barge oddsMissed22%Barge oddsMissed