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Red100
940518.2
142130.8
215221.9
Blue70
375320.1
1049726.7
970810.2
67%Model gave it33%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions78620204010012014016010070

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
Auto+3
+18Teleop
+30Endgame
+30Fouls
AutonomousBlue +3
9Leave3
0Coral scored#2
0Coral points9
9Total auto12
TeleoperatedRed +21
13Coral scored#11
47Coral points40
2Processor algae#1
4Net algae#2
12Processor points6
16Net points8
28Algae points14
75Total teleop54
Reef
4L4#5
4L3#4
2L2#2
3L1 · trough#2
19Game pieces#16
BargeRed +12
16Cage & park4
16Total endgame4
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +30
0Foul points0
100Total score70

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
30.81.3
29.130.4
Auto2.5
Teleop22.8
End5.5
red by 4.2
26.70.0
26.626.7
Auto2.5
Teleop22.8
End1.3
Second
2152
#52
21.91.3
19.320.7
Auto2.7
Teleop16.5
End2.6
red by 1.7
3753
#42
20.10.0
19.719.8
Auto5.0
Teleop14.0
End1.2
Third
9405
#30
18.21.3
16.818.2
Auto3.7
Teleop10.7
End3.7
red by 8.0
9708
#55
10.20.0
10.110.2
Auto1.1
Teleop8.3
End0.8
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
28%Auto oddsMissed38%Auto oddsEarned
Coral
2%Coral oddsMissed5%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
37%Barge oddsEarned8%Barge oddsMissed