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Red139
608143.5
612035.2
837342.3
Blue144
442242.8
439515.3
353855.9
59%Model gave it41%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions126124110120130140150139144

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
Auto+11
Teleop+9
Endgame+11
Fouls+5
AutonomousBlue +11
3Leave0
5Coral scored#7
23Coral points37
26Total auto37
TeleoperatedRed +2
19Coral scored#16
67Coral points57
2Processor algae#2
3Net algae#5
12Processor points12
12Net points20
24Algae points32
91Total teleop89
Reef
10L4#9
7L3#6
5L2#5
2L1 · trough#3
29Game pieces#30
BargeBlue +2
16Cage & park18
16Total endgame18
Penalties & totalBlue +5
6Foul points0
139Total score144

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
6081
#10
43.50.4
42.242.6
Auto5.4
Teleop31.5
End6.6
blue by 12.3
3538
#11
55.90.7
55.255.9
Auto14.7
Teleop40.4
End0.7
Second
42.30.4
41.041.3
Auto6.7
Teleop31.9
End3.7
blue by 0.6
42.80.7
42.242.9
Auto9.8
Teleop23.1
End9.9
Third
6120
#20
35.20.4
33.934.2
Auto8.9
Teleop21.0
End5.3
red by 19.9
4395
#18
15.30.7
14.715.4
Auto5.0
Teleop7.4
End2.9