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Red119
657034.1
514431.5
999234.7
Blue181
86257.6
686134.5
999619.7
47%Model gave it53%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions1071200200300400500119181

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
Auto+8
Teleop+22
Endgame+24
Fouls+62
AutonomousBlue +8
3Leave3
3Coral scored#5
16Coral points24
19Total auto27
TeleoperatedBlue +14
16Coral scored#18
58Coral points64
1Processor algae#3
4Net algae#3
6Processor points18
16Net points12
22Algae points30
80Total teleop94
Reef
8L4#11
6L3#6
2L2#4
3L1 · trough#2
24Game pieces#29
BargeBlue +2
14Cage & park16
14Total endgame16
Penalties & totalBlue +62
6Foul points44
119Total score181

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
9992
#15
34.70.3
34.434.7
Auto10.2
Teleop20.4
End4.3
blue by 22.8
862
#14
57.60.6
57.157.7
Auto13.5
Teleop37.3
End6.7
Second
34.10.3
33.834.1
Auto7.4
Teleop16.8
End9.9
blue by 0.4
34.50.6
34.134.6
Auto6.6
Teleop21.3
End6.6
Third
5144
#12
31.50.3
31.231.5
Auto4.5
Teleop24.4
End2.6
red by 11.9
9996
#16
19.70.6
19.219.8
Auto6.7
Teleop12.4
End0.7