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Red160
7864.6
242350.2
99938.1
Blue95
944319.7
964451.2
500046.9
46%Model gave it54%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions12013005010015020025030035016095

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+18Auto
+43Teleop
+53Endgame
+65Fouls
AutonomousRed +18
3Leave6
9Coral scored#5
45Coral points24
48Total auto30
TeleoperatedRed +25
14Coral scored#10
52Coral points35
3Processor algae#1
3Net algae#4
18Processor points6
12Net points16
30Algae points22
82Total teleop57
Reef
9L4#5
7L3#6
2L2#2
5L1 · trough#2
29Game pieces#20
BargeRed +10
12Cage & park2
12Total endgame2
Penalties & totalRed +65
18Foul points6
160Total score95

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
78
#14
64.60.5
64.264.7
Auto17.3
Teleop37.0
End10.3
red by 13.5
9644
#16
51.20.7
51.851.1
Auto13.3
Teleop37.0
End0.9
Second
50.20.5
49.850.3
Auto13.4
Teleop31.8
End5.0
red by 3.3
5000
#10
46.90.7
47.646.9
Auto14.7
Teleop27.3
End4.9
Third
9993
#21
8.10.8
7.38.1
Auto2.1
Teleop4.0
End2.2
blue by 11.6
9443
#28
19.70.7
20.419.7
Auto3.2
Teleop12.5
End4.0