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Red227
19078.7
318232.6
176869.3
Blue179
237056.8
175742.0
110051.6
84%Model gave it16%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions185152100200250227179

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+14Auto
+44Teleop
+54Endgame
+48Fouls
AutonomousRed +14
3Leave3
8Coral scored#5
41Coral points27
44Total auto30
TeleoperatedRed +30
29Coral scored#25
105Coral points91
3Processor algae#3
6Net algae#2
18Processor points18
24Net points8
42Algae points26
147Total teleop117
Reef
17L4#7
8L3#12
7L2#7
5L1 · trough#4
46Game pieces#35
BargeRed +10
36Cage & park26
36Total endgame26
Penalties & totalRed +48
0Foul points6
227Total score179

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
190
#1
78.71.2
76.077.2
Auto20.9
Teleop49.0
End8.8
red by 21.9
56.80.5
56.456.9
Auto10.3
Teleop39.9
End6.6
Second
69.31.2
66.667.8
Auto14.3
Teleop47.1
End7.9
red by 17.7
51.60.5
51.251.7
Auto7.3
Teleop39.0
End5.3
Third
3182
#33
32.61.2
29.931.2
Auto4.6
Teleop20.8
End7.2
blue by 9.3
1757
#15
42.00.5
41.642.1
Auto5.5
Teleop28.3
End8.1