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Red128
173149.5
859033.9
286721.6
Blue121
482127.9
463827.4
686319.0
90%Model gave it10%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions1298750100150200128121

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
Auto+13
+5Teleop
+17Endgame
+7Fouls
AutonomousBlue +13
3Leave0
1Coral scored#4
3Coral points19
6Total auto19
TeleoperatedRed +18
16Coral scored#16
56Coral points58
4Processor algae#2
6Net algae#4
24Processor points12
24Net points16
48Algae points28
104Total teleop86
Reef
7L4#6
4L3#5
4L2#6
2L1 · trough#3
27Game pieces#26
BargeRed +12
16Cage & park4
16Total endgame4
Penalties & totalRed +7
2Foul points12
128Total score121

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
49.50.0
49.549.5
Auto12.9
Teleop28.3
End8.4
red by 21.7
27.90.3
27.627.9
Auto5.2
Teleop15.8
End6.9
Second
33.90.0
33.933.9
Auto4.8
Teleop27.3
End1.7
red by 6.4
4638
#13
27.40.3
27.127.4
Auto10.1
Teleop15.8
End1.5
Third
2867
#22
21.60.0
21.621.6
Auto3.5
Teleop16.6
End1.5
red by 2.6
6863
#18
19.00.3
18.719.0
Auto4.6
Teleop12.7
End1.7