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Red49
788616.5
777021.2
242121.8
Blue12
379320.0
371412.2
558713.6
38%Model gave it62%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions576802040801001201404912

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+13Auto
+29Teleop
+31Endgame
+37Fouls
AutonomousRed +13
3Leave0
2Coral scored#0
10Coral points0
13Total auto0
TeleoperatedRed +16
4Coral scored#3
16Coral points10
1Processor algae#0
1Net algae#0
6Processor points0
4Net points0
10Algae points0
26Total teleop10
Reef
2L4#1
2L3#1
1L2#1
1L1 · trough#0
8Game pieces#3
BargeRed +2
4Cage & park2
4Total endgame2
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +37
6Foul points0
49Total score12

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
2421
#20
21.80.9
23.322.4
Auto5.0
Teleop14.0
End2.9
red by 1.9
3793
#12
20.05.1
22.016.9
Auto4.5
Teleop14.5
End1.0
Second
7770
#17
21.20.5
14.113.5
Auto4.6
Teleop15.4
End1.1
red by 7.6
5587
#13
13.65.1
21.916.8
Auto2.7
Teleop8.3
End2.6
Third
16.50.5
13.813.2
Auto3.7
Teleop11.1
End1.7
red by 4.2
3714
#22
12.25.1
14.19.0
Auto3.0
Teleop7.5
End1.7
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
54%Auto oddsEarned42%Auto oddsMissed
Coral
3%Coral oddsMissed4%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
18%Barge oddsMissed27%Barge oddsMissed