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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions8063204010012014088108

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
Auto+13
Teleop+14
Endgame+12
Fouls+20
AutonomousBlue +13
9Leave3
0Coral scored#4
0Coral points19
9Total auto22
TeleoperatedBlue +1
14Coral scored#16
51Coral points56
1Processor algae#1
4Net algae#3
6Processor points6
16Net points12
22Algae points18
73Total teleop74
Reef
4L4#6
4L3#7
4L2#4
2L1 · trough#3
19Game pieces#24
BargeRed +2
6Cage & park4
6Total endgame4
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalBlue +20
0Foul points8
88Total score108

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
5144
#12
26.00.5
23.924.4
Auto3.5
Teleop21.0
End1.4
red by 5.2
5980
#15
20.82.8
19.622.3
Auto5.1
Teleop12.6
End3.1
Second
5501
#13
17.20.5
17.117.6
Auto3.7
Teleop11.8
End1.7
blue by 2.2
7226
#30
19.42.8
15.117.9
Auto4.0
Teleop14.9
End0.6
Third
9566
#36
16.70.5
17.117.6
Auto3.1
Teleop13.1
End0.4
red by 0.3
16.32.8
13.115.9
Auto4.3
Teleop9.9
End2.1
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
40%Auto oddsMissed53%Auto oddsEarned
Coral
3%Coral oddsMissed3%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
5%Barge oddsMissed29%Barge oddsMissed