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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions1207720406010014016018015173

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+15Auto
+40Teleop
+60Endgame
+78Fouls
AutonomousRed +15
3Leave6
5Coral scored#2
27Coral points9
30Total auto15
TeleoperatedRed +25
11Coral scored#8
41Coral points28
4Processor algae#2
3Net algae#3
24Processor points12
12Net points12
36Algae points24
77Total teleop52
Reef
6L4#5
3L3#2
4L2#2
3L1 · trough#1
23Game pieces#15
BargeRed +20
26Cage & park6
26Total endgame6
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +78
18Foul points0
151Total score73

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
52.51.8
45.647.4
Auto10.3
Teleop34.1
End8.0
red by 23.9
858
#14
28.60.5
29.228.7
Auto4.5
Teleop22.7
End1.4
Second
52.31.8
45.046.8
Auto17.2
Teleop25.8
End9.3
red by 24.0
3875
#24
28.20.5
26.726.1
Auto2.9
Teleop24.0
End1.3
Third
4453
#22
16.81.6
11.613.2
Auto4.3
Teleop8.5
End4.0
red by 0.4
16.30.5
15.915.4
Auto4.3
Teleop9.9
End2.1
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
96%Auto oddsEarned68%Auto oddsEarned
Coral
3%Coral oddsMissed5%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
82%Barge oddsEarned13%Barge oddsMissed