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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions6963020408010012010176

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+4Auto
+37Teleop
+41Endgame
+25Fouls
AutonomousRed +4
3Leave9
3Coral scored#1
16Coral points6
19Total auto15
TeleoperatedRed +33
10Coral scored#4
36Coral points15
2Processor algae#0
3Net algae#3
12Processor points0
12Net points12
24Algae points12
60Total teleop27
Reef
4L4#2
4L3#1
3L2#1
2L1 · trough#1
18Game pieces#8
BargeRed +4
20Cage & park16
20Total endgame16
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +25
2Foul points18
101Total score76

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
37.42.3
31.033.3
Auto10.9
Teleop18.1
End8.3
red by 1.1
5535
#13
36.20.2
30.330.1
Auto7.0
Teleop22.2
End7.0
Second
288
#30
31.33.6
18.522.1
Auto5.0
Teleop22.4
End4.0
red by 16.3
5702
#32
15.00.1
13.313.2
Auto4.5
Teleop8.6
End1.9
Third
8427
#22
24.63.6
14.918.5
Auto4.0
Teleop19.1
End1.5
red by 9.6
5462
#29
15.00.2
16.015.8
Auto2.9
Teleop10.3
End1.8
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
61%Auto oddsEarned77%Auto oddsEarned
Coral
4%Coral oddsMissed3%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
47%Barge oddsEarned32%Barge oddsEarned