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Red69
12330.2
28012.7
691426.0
Blue76
125029.4
925127.0
48%Model gave it52%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions75764050607080901001106976

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, centred to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
Auto+3
Teleop+7
Endgame+7
Fouls+7
AutonomousBlue +3
9Leave9
0Coral scored#1
0Coral points3
9Total auto12
TeleoperatedBlue +4
10Coral scored#12
36Coral points44
1Processor algae#1
3Net algae#2
6Processor points6
12Net points8
18Algae points14
54Total teleop58
Reef
3L4#5
2L3#4
3L2#2
2L1 · trough#2
14Game pieces#16
Bargelevel
6Cage & park6
6Total endgame6
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalBlue +7
0Foul points0
69Total score76

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
123
#20
30.20.6
26.425.8
Auto6.3
Teleop22.6
End1.3
red by 0.9
1250
#25
29.40.2
28.128.2
Auto5.2
Teleop20.7
End3.4
Second
6914
#19
26.00.6
23.623.0
Auto3.9
Teleop18.6
End3.5
blue by 1.0
9251
#10
27.00.2
23.924.1
Auto7.5
Teleop17.9
End1.5
Third
280
#38
12.70.8
12.811.9
Auto1.3
Teleop10.2
End1.2
red by 3.1
9.60.2
8.38.5
Auto1.7
Teleop6.3
End1.7
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
54%Auto oddsMissed30%Auto oddsEarned
Coral
5%Coral oddsMissed3%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
16%Barge oddsMissed13%Barge oddsMissed