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Red224
85849.1
233779.4
207572.4
Blue185
362068.5
546070.1
296052.3
71%Model gave it29%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions216202160180240260280224185

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
Auto+7
+41Teleop
+39Endgame
+39Fouls
AutonomousBlue +7
3Leave6
10Coral scored#10
48Coral points52
51Total auto58
TeleoperatedRed +48
28Coral scored#18
99Coral points63
3Processor algae#3
8Net algae#5
18Processor points18
32Net points20
50Algae points38
149Total teleop101
Reef
17L4#11
12L3#7
6L2#6
3L1 · trough#4
49Game pieces#36
BargeBlue +2
24Cage & park26
24Total endgame26
Penalties & totalRed +39
0Foul points0
224Total score185

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
2337
Unranked
79.40.5
79.580.0
Auto21.9
Teleop49.2
End8.3
red by 9.3
5460
Unranked
70.10.1
70.270.1
Auto22.0
Teleop43.7
End4.4
Second
2075
Unranked
72.40.5
72.573.0
Auto17.8
Teleop44.8
End9.8
red by 3.9
3620
Unranked
68.50.1
68.768.5
Auto22.1
Teleop37.3
End9.2
Third
858
Unranked
49.10.5
49.149.6
Auto10.6
Teleop36.4
End2.1
blue by 3.2
2960
Unranked
52.30.1
52.452.3
Auto9.0
Teleop34.1
End9.1