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Red1
828044.1
170179.9
99937.7
Blue0
99927.1
99907.1
99947.1
99%Model gave it1%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions1561805010020025010

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
0Auto0
0Teleop0
0Endgame0
+1Fouls
Autonomouslevel
0Leave0
0Coral scored#0
0Coral points0
0Total auto0
Teleoperatedlevel
0Coral scored#0
0Coral points0
0Processor algae#0
0Net algae#0
0Processor points0
0Net points0
0Algae points0
0Total teleop0
Reef
0L4#0
0L3#0
0L2#0
0L1 · trough#0
0Game pieces#0
Bargelevel
0Cage & park0
0Total endgame0
Penalties & totalRed +1
1Foul points0
1Total score0

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
79.93.0
80.677.7
Auto23.6
Teleop46.9
End9.4
red by 72.8
9990
Unranked
7.11.0
9.08.0
Auto1.2
Teleop5.1
End0.5
Second
44.13.0
44.941.9
Auto15.4
Teleop22.0
End6.7
red by 37.0
9992
Unranked
7.11.0
9.08.0
Auto1.2
Teleop5.1
End0.5
Third
9993
Unranked
7.75.0
9.04.0
Auto0.3
Teleop6.6
End0.4
red by 0.6
9994
Unranked
7.11.0
9.08.0
Auto1.2
Teleop5.1
End0.5