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Red240
50338.9
341469.9
283276.7
Blue296
170176.8
776983.2
439190.3
1%Model gave it99%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions207309150250350400240296

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
Auto+4
Teleop+40
Endgame+50
Fouls+56
AutonomousBlue +4
6Leave0
9Coral scored#11
45Coral points55
51Total auto55
TeleoperatedBlue +36
31Coral scored#31
111Coral points113
4Processor algae#5
7Net algae#14
24Processor points30
28Net points56
52Algae points86
163Total teleop199
Reef
18L4#20
10L3#8
7L2#10
5L1 · trough#4
51Game pieces#61
BargeBlue +10
26Cage & park36
26Total endgame36
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalBlue +56
0Foul points6
240Total score296

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
76.70.9
75.476.3
Auto14.7
Teleop53.1
End8.8
blue by 13.7
90.30.8
92.892.0
Auto16.6
Teleop63.6
End10.1
Second
69.90.9
68.669.5
Auto17.3
Teleop44.8
End7.7
blue by 13.3
83.20.8
85.684.8
Auto16.5
Teleop56.0
End10.6
Third
503
#5
38.90.9
37.638.5
Auto9.9
Teleop20.1
End8.9
blue by 37.9
76.80.8
79.278.4
Auto20.4
Teleop47.4
End8.9
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
12%Auto oddsMissed16%Auto oddsMissed
Coral
10%Coral oddsMissed12%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
12%Barge oddsMissed14%Barge oddsMissed