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Red203
565352.5
859268.6
87667.7
Blue204
298019.5
91069.2
432260.1
90%Model gave it10%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions21414950100200250300203204

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+5Auto
+19Teleop
Endgame+1
Fouls+1
AutonomousRed +5
9Leave0
8Coral scored#9
42Coral points46
51Total auto46
TeleoperatedRed +14
25Coral scored#20
90Coral points72
4Processor algae#4
8Net algae#9
24Processor points24
32Net points36
56Algae points60
146Total teleop132
Reef
11L4#9
7L3#8
12L2#8
3L1 · trough#4
45Game pieces#42
BargeBlue +20
6Cage & park26
6Total endgame26
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalBlue +1
0Foul points0
203Total score204

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
8592
#53
68.60.4
67.067.4
Auto13.9
Teleop48.3
End6.4
blue by 0.6
910
#5
69.23.8
63.267.0
Auto20.0
Teleop38.9
End10.4
Second
876
#23
67.70.4
67.467.7
Auto17.2
Teleop41.7
End8.9
red by 7.6
4322
#32
60.13.8
56.360.1
Auto15.1
Teleop40.1
End4.9
Third
5653
#71
52.50.4
52.152.5
Auto9.6
Teleop40.3
End2.6
red by 33.0
2980
#69
19.53.8
15.719.5
Auto3.4
Teleop14.4
End1.7
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
94%Auto oddsEarned79%Auto oddsEarned
Coral
50%Coral oddsEarned43%Coral oddsEarned
Barge
91%Barge oddsMissed48%Barge oddsEarned