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Red160
686138.2
1059013.0
233769.4
Blue82
755329.1
520520.5
1070521.4
99%Model gave it1%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions130675010015020016082

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+15Auto
+54Teleop
+76Endgame
+78Fouls
AutonomousRed +15
3Leave3
6Coral scored#3
31Coral points16
34Total auto19
TeleoperatedRed +39
21Coral scored#11
74Coral points41
2Processor algae#1
3Net algae#3
12Processor points6
12Net points12
24Algae points18
98Total teleop59
Reef
11L4#4
8L3#5
4L2#2
4L1 · trough#3
32Game pieces#18
BargeRed +22
26Cage & park4
26Total endgame4
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +78
2Foul points0
160Total score82

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
69.42.4
66.068.4
Auto17.0
Teleop44.5
End7.9
red by 40.3
29.10.2
25.826.1
Auto6.2
Teleop18.9
End4.0
Second
38.22.4
34.737.1
Auto5.0
Teleop25.5
End7.7
red by 16.8
21.40.2
22.122.4
Auto5.6
Teleop12.5
End3.4
Third
13.02.4
10.012.4
Auto3.7
Teleop6.9
End2.5
blue by 7.5
5205
#16
20.50.2
19.219.5
Auto4.4
Teleop13.9
End2.2
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
81%Auto oddsEarned85%Auto oddsEarned
Coral
39%Coral oddsEarned5%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
73%Barge oddsEarned48%Barge oddsMissed