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Red136
85741.5
607740.8
1050536.1
Blue71
975523.7
159627.2
725028.6
90%Model gave it10%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions107685015013671

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+11Auto
+57Teleop
+65Endgame
+65Fouls
AutonomousRed +11
6Leave9
3Coral scored#0
14Coral points0
20Total auto9
TeleoperatedRed +46
23Coral scored#9
82Coral points34
2Processor algae#1
2Net algae#4
12Processor points6
8Net points16
20Algae points22
102Total teleop56
Reef
13L4#3
5L3#3
4L2#1
4L1 · trough#2
30Game pieces#14
BargeRed +8
14Cage & park6
14Total endgame6
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +65
0Foul points0
136Total score71

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
857
#5
41.52.2
32.034.2
Auto8.8
Teleop26.5
End6.2
red by 12.9
7250
#31
28.60.6
24.624.0
Auto4.0
Teleop23.5
End1.1
Second
6077
#17
40.82.2
30.432.6
Auto5.1
Teleop27.3
End8.3
red by 13.5
27.20.6
17.116.5
Auto4.0
Teleop22.9
End0.4
Third
36.12.2
19.321.5
Auto5.6
Teleop30.5
End0.1
red by 12.4
9755
#24
23.70.6
14.413.8
Auto3.2
Teleop18.6
End1.9
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
46%Auto oddsEarned57%Auto oddsMissed
Coral
4%Coral oddsMissed4%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
83%Barge oddsEarned20%Barge oddsMissed