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Red170
353960.4
21746.9
1065224.2
Blue80
523927.5
718833.1
811517.2
98%Model gave it2%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions1497305010020017080

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+21Auto
+44Teleop
+52Endgame
+90Fouls
AutonomousRed +21
3Leave3
6Coral scored#2
30Coral points9
33Total auto12
TeleoperatedRed +23
14Coral scored#9
51Coral points32
2Processor algae#2
5Net algae#4
12Processor points12
20Net points16
32Algae points28
83Total teleop60
Reef
5L4#4
7L3#3
4L2#2
4L1 · trough#2
27Game pieces#17
BargeRed +8
12Cage & park4
12Total endgame4
Penalties & totalRed +90
42Foul points4
170Total score80

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
60.40.1
61.461.3
Auto20.4
Teleop32.6
End7.3
red by 27.3
7188
#30
33.10.0
33.133.1
Auto4.8
Teleop28.1
End0.3
Second
217
#8
46.90.1
48.047.8
Auto8.5
Teleop33.9
End4.5
red by 19.4
27.50.0
27.627.5
Auto6.3
Teleop14.3
End6.9
Third
24.20.1
25.225.1
Auto5.3
Teleop16.3
End2.6
red by 7.0
8115
#36
17.20.0
17.217.2
Auto3.7
Teleop10.0
End3.5