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Red199
521665.6
924581.6
887335.5
Blue121
283251.7
686126.6
571264.5
84%Model gave it16%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions19915250100250300199121

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
Auto+8
+68Teleop
+78Endgame
+78Fouls
AutonomousBlue +8
0Leave0
7Coral scored#9
36Coral points44
36Total auto44
TeleoperatedRed +76
24Coral scored#12
85Coral points43
2Processor algae#3
13Net algae#3
12Processor points18
52Net points12
64Algae points30
149Total teleop73
Reef
13L4#8
7L3#7
7L2#4
4L1 · trough#2
46Game pieces#27
BargeRed +10
14Cage & park4
14Total endgame4
Penalties & totalRed +78
0Foul points0
199Total score121

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
81.60.4
81.281.6
Auto16.6
Teleop56.4
End8.6
red by 17.1
64.50.5
65.064.5
Auto10.5
Teleop44.7
End9.5
Second
65.60.4
65.265.6
Auto16.9
Teleop47.8
End1.0
red by 13.9
51.70.5
52.251.7
Auto14.7
Teleop32.2
End4.8
Third
8873
#19
35.50.4
35.135.5
Auto4.9
Teleop25.0
End5.7
red by 8.9
6861
#18
26.60.5
27.126.6
Auto6.6
Teleop17.0
End3.0