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Red98
967415.7
560337.7
522927.8
Blue105
261930.1
552521.3
550938.9
40%Model gave it60%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions8910205015020098105

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+4Auto
+15Teleop
Endgame+7
Fouls+7
AutonomousRed +4
3Leave3
3Coral scored#2
13Coral points9
16Total auto12
TeleoperatedRed +11
17Coral scored#13
60Coral points45
1Processor algae#1
3Net algae#4
6Processor points6
12Net points16
18Algae points22
78Total teleop67
Reef
10L4#5
5L3#4
3L2#4
2L1 · trough#2
24Game pieces#20
BargeBlue +22
4Cage & park26
4Total endgame26
Penalties & totalBlue +7
0Foul points0
98Total score105

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
37.70.4
37.337.7
Auto8.4
Teleop24.8
End4.5
blue by 1.2
38.90.3
38.739.1
Auto7.2
Teleop25.5
End6.3
Second
27.80.4
27.427.8
Auto4.9
Teleop21.5
End1.4
blue by 2.3
30.10.3
30.030.3
Auto5.5
Teleop17.2
End7.4
Third
9674
#34
15.70.4
15.315.7
Auto3.1
Teleop10.3
End2.2
blue by 5.5
5525
#24
21.30.3
21.121.4
Auto4.8
Teleop14.2
End2.3