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Qual 242025 FIM District Mt. Pleasant Event
Red94
612130.5
965021.0
261921.5
Blue82
696313.3
400339.6
598219.0
49%Model gave it51%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions636701002003004005006009482

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
Auto+3
Teleop+4
+6Endgame
+12Fouls
AutonomousBlue +3
0Leave6
3Coral scored#2
13Coral points10
13Total auto16
TeleoperatedBlue +1
11Coral scored#9
41Coral points34
2Processor algae#2
2Net algae#4
12Processor points12
8Net points16
20Algae points28
61Total teleop62
Reef
5L4#3
4L3#4
3L2#2
2L1 · trough#2
18Game pieces#17
BargeRed +10
14Cage & park4
14Total endgame4
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +12
6Foul points0
94Total score82

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
6121
#9
30.52.7
25.5→28.2
Auto5.6
Teleop22.8
End2.1
blue by 9.1
4003
#4
39.62.1
32.1→34.2
Auto7.3
Teleop30.6
End1.8
Second
2619
#12
21.52.7
20.9→23.7
Auto4.0
Teleop12.3
End5.3
red by 2.6
5982
#24
19.02.1
15.2→17.3
Auto4.5
Teleop12.7
End1.7
Third
9650
#10
21.01.6
11.0→12.6
Auto4.0
Teleop15.0
End2.0
red by 7.6
6963
#28
13.32.1
10.7→12.7
Auto2.8
Teleop7.9
End2.7
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
28%Auto oddsEarned64%Auto oddsEarned
Coral
4%Coral oddsMissed5%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
47%Barge oddsEarned28%Barge oddsMissed