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Red149
546069.1
213768.5
499418.2
Blue84
456814.8
89437.7
222426.6
99%Model gave it1%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions166785010015020025014984

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+38Auto
+69Teleop
+71Endgame
+65Fouls
AutonomousRed +38
0Leave3
11Coral scored#3
54Coral points13
54Total auto16
TeleoperatedRed +31
14Coral scored#8
51Coral points28
2Processor algae#2
4Net algae#2
12Processor points12
16Net points8
28Algae points20
79Total teleop48
Reef
11L4#5
6L3#4
5L2#1
3L1 · trough#1
31Game pieces#15
BargeRed +2
16Cage & park14
16Total endgame14
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +65
0Foul points6
149Total score84

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
69.10.4
65.365.7
Auto21.3
Teleop41.6
End6.2
red by 31.4
894
#7
37.70.0
33.433.4
Auto8.4
Teleop22.0
End7.3
Second
68.50.4
63.263.6
Auto17.9
Teleop41.5
End9.1
red by 41.9
2224
#32
26.60.0
26.426.4
Auto4.9
Teleop21.4
End0.3
Third
4994
#20
18.20.4
14.314.7
Auto7.5
Teleop8.7
End1.9
red by 3.4
4568
#36
14.80.0
17.918.0
Auto3.0
Teleop10.6
End1.2
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
94%Auto oddsEarned48%Auto oddsEarned
Coral
81%Coral oddsEarned13%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
54%Barge oddsEarned15%Barge oddsEarned