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Red93
608730.6
779040.0
498320.1
Blue81
779418.7
171135.0
759813.7
90%Model gave it10%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions995801509381

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
Auto+4
Teleop+10
Endgame+2
+12Fouls
AutonomousBlue +4
6Leave0
2Coral scored#4
9Coral points19
15Total auto19
TeleoperatedBlue +6
9Coral scored#12
32Coral points42
1Processor algae#1
3Net algae#2
6Processor points6
12Net points8
18Algae points14
50Total teleop56
Reef
5L4#7
3L3#4
1L2#2
2L1 · trough#3
15Game pieces#19
BargeRed +8
14Cage & park6
14Total endgame6
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +12
14Foul points0
93Total score81

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
40.00.8
38.537.7
Auto6.9
Teleop26.5
End6.5
red by 5.0
1711
#11
35.01.4
33.634.9
Auto8.8
Teleop20.7
End5.6
Second
6087
#14
30.60.8
31.730.9
Auto4.8
Teleop23.3
End2.5
red by 11.9
7794
#39
18.71.4
17.318.7
Auto4.3
Teleop11.9
End2.5
Third
4983
#15
20.10.8
20.920.1
Auto5.4
Teleop13.1
End1.6
red by 6.4
7598
#33
13.71.5
9.811.3
Auto2.3
Teleop9.7
End1.7
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
93%Auto oddsEarned49%Auto oddsEarned
Coral
6%Coral oddsMissed3%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
49%Barge oddsEarned46%Barge oddsMissed