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Red186
222730.0
388344.3
313065.6
Blue203
205248.2
282333.4
472869.5
54%Model gave it46%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions153150100120140160180200186203

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, centred to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
Auto+1
Teleop+29
Endgame+19
Fouls+17
AutonomousBlue +1
6Leave0
7Coral scored#9
37Coral points44
43Total auto44
TeleoperatedBlue +28
23Coral scored#18
81Coral points65
2Processor algae#6
3Net algae#8
12Processor points36
12Net points32
24Algae points68
105Total teleop133
Reef
13L4#11
8L3#5
5L2#6
4L1 · trough#5
35Game pieces#41
BargeRed +10
36Cage & park26
36Total endgame26
Penalties & totalBlue +17
2Foul points0
186Total score203

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
65.61.0
64.665.6
Auto12.8
Teleop41.1
End11.7
blue by 4.0
69.51.3
67.568.8
Auto10.1
Teleop50.8
End8.6
Second
3883
#16
44.31.0
43.344.3
Auto8.2
Teleop29.4
End6.8
blue by 3.8
2052
#22
48.21.3
45.546.7
Auto10.5
Teleop31.4
End6.2
Third
30.01.0
29.030.0
Auto5.1
Teleop19.9
End5.0
blue by 3.4
33.41.3
30.631.9
Auto9.3
Teleop21.6
End2.4