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Red125
11161.7
423029.2
616013.6
Blue71
525328.8
421518.5
223923.5
80%Model gave it20%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions9857015020012571

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+11Auto
+48Teleop
+50Endgame
+54Fouls
AutonomousRed +11
3Leave3
3Coral scored#1
17Coral points6
20Total auto9
TeleoperatedRed +37
20Coral scored#9
71Coral points32
2Processor algae#1
3Net algae#5
12Processor points6
12Net points20
24Algae points26
95Total teleop58
Reef
10L4#3
6L3#2
4L2#3
3L1 · trough#2
28Game pieces#16
BargeRed +2
6Cage & park4
6Total endgame4
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +54
4Foul points0
125Total score71

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
111
#2
61.73.3
38.742.0
Auto15.1
Teleop36.0
End10.6
red by 32.9
5253
#33
28.80.9
18.519.4
Auto3.3
Teleop22.9
End2.6
Second
4230
#17
29.23.3
27.530.8
Auto4.4
Teleop20.4
End4.3
red by 5.7
2239
#49
23.50.9
19.420.2
Auto3.2
Teleop18.1
End2.1
Third
6160
#39
13.63.3
16.419.7
Auto3.8
Teleop9.5
End0.3
blue by 4.9
4215
#29
18.50.9
17.218.1
Auto4.0
Teleop11.4
End3.2
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
45%Auto oddsMissed37%Auto oddsMissed
Coral
5%Coral oddsMissed5%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
46%Barge oddsMissed42%Barge oddsMissed