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Red155
284762.8
657433.4
614743.3
Blue125
702847.8
812229.2
173254.4
47%Model gave it53%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions138139100120160180155125

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
Auto+14
+22Teleop
+32Endgame
+30Fouls
AutonomousBlue +14
0Leave9
6Coral scored#7
30Coral points35
30Total auto44
TeleoperatedRed +36
18Coral scored#13
65Coral points45
3Processor algae#1
3Net algae#2
18Processor points6
12Net points8
30Algae points14
95Total teleop59
Reef
7L4#6
7L3#7
4L2#3
6L1 · trough#4
30Game pieces#23
BargeRed +10
24Cage & park14
24Total endgame14
Penalties & totalRed +30
6Foul points8
155Total score125

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
62.80.6
59.660.2
Auto14.1
Teleop40.2
End8.5
red by 8.4
54.40.3
53.453.1
Auto12.2
Teleop35.7
End6.5
Second
43.30.6
40.140.7
Auto10.6
Teleop25.0
End7.7
blue by 4.5
7028
#20
47.80.3
46.846.4
Auto12.5
Teleop27.5
End7.8
Third
6574
#13
33.40.6
30.230.8
Auto6.0
Teleop21.9
End5.5
red by 4.2
8122
#34
29.20.3
28.127.8
Auto5.1
Teleop18.1
End6.0