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Red121
565832.4
825540.1
448015.7
Blue53
422615.8
767724.5
757834.5
52%Model gave it48%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions96956070809010011012013012153

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, centred to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+12Auto
+64Teleop
+68Endgame
+68Fouls
AutonomousRed +12
9Leave0
2Coral scored#1
10Coral points7
19Total auto7
TeleoperatedRed +52
17Coral scored#7
62Coral points26
2Processor algae#0
2Net algae#1
12Processor points0
8Net points4
20Algae points4
82Total teleop30
Reef
8L4#2
4L3#3
4L2#2
3L1 · trough#1
23Game pieces#9
BargeRed +4
20Cage & park16
20Total endgame16
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +68
0Foul points0
121Total score53

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
8255
#11
40.12.8
36.839.6
Auto5.8
Teleop29.8
End4.5
red by 5.6
7578
#15
34.51.8
36.534.7
Auto9.2
Teleop19.4
End6.0
Second
32.42.8
29.232.0
Auto6.5
Teleop21.2
End4.7
red by 7.9
7677
#38
24.51.8
26.424.5
Auto4.1
Teleop17.5
End3.0
Third
4480
#40
15.72.8
12.915.7
Auto2.4
Teleop10.5
End2.8
blue by 0.1
4226
#27
15.81.8
17.615.8
Auto2.9
Teleop9.9
End3.0
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
57%Auto oddsEarned84%Auto oddsMissed
Coral
8%Coral oddsMissed7%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
33%Barge oddsEarned72%Barge oddsEarned