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Red74
15932.6
216931.5
375117.9
Blue61
297221.2
727313.5
217537.4
55%Model gave it45%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions105100501502007461

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+3Auto
Teleop+11
Endgame+11
+13Fouls
AutonomousRed +3
0Leave6
2Coral scored#1
12Coral points3
12Total auto9
TeleoperatedBlue +14
6Coral scored#9
20Coral points32
0Processor algae#1
1Net algae#0
0Processor points6
4Net points0
4Algae points6
24Total teleop38
Reef
3L4#3
2L3#3
2L2#2
1L1 · trough#2
9Game pieces#11
Bargelevel
6Cage & park6
6Total endgame6
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +13
32Foul points8
74Total score61

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
159
#15
32.63.5
36.132.6
Auto4.6
Teleop18.8
End9.1
blue by 4.8
2175
#38
37.42.8
40.137.4
Auto9.5
Teleop26.1
End1.7
Second
2169
#31
31.53.5
30.827.3
Auto6.4
Teleop21.4
End3.7
red by 10.3
2972
#42
21.22.8
23.620.9
Auto5.1
Teleop14.5
End1.7
Third
3751
#17
17.94.7
22.617.9
Auto4.7
Teleop11.1
End2.1
red by 4.4
7273
#44
13.52.8
17.414.6
Auto3.4
Teleop9.5
End0.6
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
87%Auto oddsEarned79%Auto oddsMissed
Coral
6%Coral oddsMissed26%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
95%Barge oddsMissed11%Barge oddsMissed