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Red75
541012.5
375318.1
299249.1
Blue6
95036.3
162210.0
86%Model gave it14%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions96440150200756

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+20Auto
+69Teleop
+69Endgame
+69Fouls
AutonomousRed +20
0Leave0
4Coral scored#0
20Coral points0
20Total auto0
TeleoperatedRed +49
10Coral scored#1
35Coral points4
1Processor algae#0
3Net algae#0
6Processor points0
12Net points0
18Algae points0
53Total teleop4
Reef
5L4#0
4L3#1
3L2#0
2L1 · trough#0
18Game pieces#1
Bargelevel
2Cage & park2
2Total endgame2
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +69
0Foul points0
75Total score6

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
2992
#4Sur
49.10.0
41.041.0
Auto11.6
Teleop35.3
End2.1
red by 39.1
1622
#18
10.02.3
14.712.4
Auto2.3
Teleop6.5
End1.1
Second
3753
#27
18.10.0
16.016.0
Auto5.6
Teleop11.4
End1.0
red by 8.8
10446
#37Sur
9.33.9
13.29.3
Auto2.5
Teleop6.0
End0.8
Third
5410
#29
12.50.0
17.917.9
Auto3.3
Teleop8.3
End0.8
red by 6.1
9503
#35
6.33.9
13.19.2
Auto1.6
Teleop4.4
End0.3
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
47%Auto oddsEarned19%Auto oddsMissed
Coral
4%Coral oddsMissed3%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
40%Barge oddsMissed26%Barge oddsMissed