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Red85
435530.5
473517.5
335424.6
Blue112
710230.7
660616.4
477522.6
55%Model gave it45%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions938305015020025085112

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
0Auto0
Teleop+11
Endgame+13
Fouls+27
Autonomouslevel
0Leave6
2Coral scored#1
12Coral points6
12Total auto12
TeleoperatedBlue +11
13Coral scored#16
47Coral points56
2Processor algae#1
3Net algae#5
12Processor points6
12Net points20
24Algae points26
71Total teleop82
Reef
7L4#8
3L3#3
2L2#3
3L1 · trough#3
20Game pieces#23
BargeBlue +2
2Cage & park4
2Total endgame4
Penalties & totalBlue +27
0Foul points14
85Total score112

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
4355
#14
30.50.0
30.530.5
Auto5.5
Teleop21.7
End3.3
blue by 0.2
7102
#16
30.70.4
29.429.9
Auto4.1
Teleop25.2
End1.5
Second
3354
#23
24.60.0
24.524.6
Auto4.6
Teleop18.8
End1.2
red by 2.0
22.60.4
21.321.7
Auto3.3
Teleop18.5
End0.8
Third
4735
#11
17.50.0
17.517.5
Auto2.1
Teleop11.9
End3.5
red by 1.1
6606
#28
16.40.4
15.115.5
Auto3.2
Teleop10.8
End2.4