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Red76
228320.3
440341.8
610622.4
Blue62
347220.3
829020.9
90656.8
99%Model gave it1%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions1034401507662

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
Auto+7
+12Teleop
+20Endgame
+14Fouls
AutonomousBlue +7
0Leave9
2Coral scored#1
9Coral points7
9Total auto16
TeleoperatedRed +19
11Coral scored#7
39Coral points24
1Processor algae#1
2Net algae#1
6Processor points6
8Net points4
14Algae points10
53Total teleop34
Reef
5L4#3
5L3#2
2L2#2
1L1 · trough#1
16Game pieces#10
BargeRed +8
14Cage & park6
14Total endgame6
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +14
0Foul points6
76Total score62

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
41.80.2
38.138.0
Auto4.3
Teleop29.8
End7.7
red by 20.9
20.91.4
15.917.3
Auto3.8
Teleop14.2
End2.9
Second
22.40.2
21.721.5
Auto3.5
Teleop17.9
End1.0
red by 2.1
20.31.4
19.520.9
Auto5.0
Teleop14.2
End1.0
Third
2283
#16
20.30.2
18.117.9
Auto4.1
Teleop14.9
End1.3
red by 13.6
9065
#42
6.81.4
5.87.2
Auto3.1
Teleop2.2
End1.5
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
32%Auto oddsMissed29%Auto oddsEarned
Coral
4%Coral oddsMissed3%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
27%Barge oddsEarned17%Barge oddsMissed