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Red186
440343.8
951329.7
913443.8
Blue44
531221.3
68964.5
100%Model gave it0%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions1281705010015020018644

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+19Auto
+68Teleop
+66Endgame
+142Fouls
AutonomousRed +19
9Leave6
3Coral scored#0
16Coral points0
25Total auto6
TeleoperatedRed +49
15Coral scored#6
53Coral points22
2Processor algae#1
4Net algae#1
12Processor points6
16Net points4
28Algae points10
81Total teleop32
Reef
5L4#2
5L3#2
4L2#1
4L1 · trough#1
24Game pieces#8
BargeBlue +2
4Cage & park6
4Total endgame6
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +142
76Foul points0
186Total score44

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
43.80.4
38.839.3
Auto7.4
Teleop34.2
End2.2
red by 22.6
5312
#27
21.31.9
15.217.1
Auto2.7
Teleop15.4
End3.2
Second
43.80.4
40.040.4
Auto8.5
Teleop28.7
End6.6
red by 34.9
8.91.9
7.08.8
Auto2.7
Teleop5.3
End0.9
Third
29.70.4
24.625.1
Auto5.0
Teleop18.4
End6.3
red by 25.2
6896
#42
4.51.9
4.96.8
Auto1.0
Teleop2.5
End0.9
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
89%Auto oddsEarned20%Auto oddsMissed
Coral
6%Coral oddsEarned4%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
91%Barge oddsMissed14%Barge oddsMissed