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Red131
949671.2
272423.6
1030415.7
Blue105
122521.3
572733.3
153339.6
85%Model gave it15%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions101794060120140131105

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
Auto+3
+26Teleop
+18Endgame
+26Fouls
AutonomousBlue +3
3Leave3
5Coral scored#5
24Coral points27
27Total auto30
TeleoperatedRed +29
20Coral scored#14
72Coral points51
1Processor algae#1
3Net algae#1
6Processor points6
12Net points4
18Algae points10
90Total teleop61
Reef
11L4#5
6L3#5
4L2#5
4L1 · trough#4
29Game pieces#21
BargeBlue +8
6Cage & park14
6Total endgame14
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +26
8Foul points0
131Total score105

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
71.22.0
57.659.6
Auto17.4
Teleop48.7
End5.2
red by 31.6
39.61.8
33.835.6
Auto9.7
Teleop23.1
End6.8
Second
23.63.4
16.620.0
Auto5.8
Teleop16.3
End1.5
blue by 9.7
5727
#12
33.33.0
26.329.2
Auto8.6
Teleop22.6
End2.1
Third
15.73.4
15.819.2
Auto3.0
Teleop12.4
End0.3
blue by 5.6
21.31.8
15.417.1
Auto5.2
Teleop14.8
End1.3
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
77%Auto oddsMissed54%Auto oddsEarned
Coral
16%Coral oddsMissed5%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
30%Barge oddsMissed66%Barge oddsEarned