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Red26
481613.5
486133.0
624011.5
Blue49
382226.8
672923.7
904216.1
42%Model gave it58%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions66820501001502002503002649

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
33.00.0
33.033.0
Auto5.8
Teleop19.0
End8.3
red by 6.2
26.80.0
26.826.8
Auto10.1
Teleop15.2
End1.5
Second
13.50.0
13.513.5
Auto4.1
Teleop7.5
End2.0
blue by 10.2
6729
#19
23.70.0
23.723.7
Auto2.9
Teleop19.9
End0.9
Third
6240
#16
11.50.0
11.511.5
Auto3.7
Teleop6.3
End1.5
blue by 4.5
9042
#10
16.10.0
16.116.1
Auto3.9
Teleop10.3
End1.8