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Red79
900834.9
591914.0
650037.2
Blue78
929728.6
516021.7
519012.3
90%Model gave it10%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions105620501507978

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+7Auto
Teleop+15
Endgame+11
+1Fouls
AutonomousRed +7
6Leave0
3Coral scored#3
17Coral points16
23Total auto16
TeleoperatedBlue +22
9Coral scored#13
32Coral points48
0Processor algae#1
2Net algae#2
0Processor points6
8Net points8
8Algae points14
40Total teleop62
Reef
5L4#6
3L3#4
2L2#4
2L1 · trough#2
14Game pieces#19
BargeRed +4
4Cage & park0
4Total endgame0
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +1
12Foul points0
79Total score78

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
37.21.5
36.434.9
Auto7.8
Teleop23.9
End5.5
red by 8.6
9297
#14
28.61.4
30.031.4
Auto4.8
Teleop21.3
End2.5
Second
34.91.5
37.035.5
Auto4.6
Teleop26.9
End3.4
red by 13.1
5160
#22
21.71.1
18.719.8
Auto4.5
Teleop17.4
End-0.2
Third
5919
#26
14.01.5
16.314.8
Auto4.5
Teleop7.7
End1.8
red by 1.7
5190
#13
12.31.1
12.613.7
Auto4.0
Teleop5.4
End2.9
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
53%Auto oddsEarned36%Auto oddsEarned
Coral
4%Coral oddsMissed3%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
70%Barge oddsMissed12%Barge oddsMissed