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Red115
681434.0
220436.7
213557.3
Blue123
661942.9
879342.8
801630.8
55%Model gave it45%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions113104050150200250115123

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+11Auto
+6Teleop
Endgame+8
Fouls+8
AutonomousRed +11
3Leave6
7Coral scored#4
34Coral points20
37Total auto26
TeleoperatedBlue +5
13Coral scored#18
48Coral points63
2Processor algae#1
4Net algae#3
12Processor points6
16Net points12
28Algae points18
76Total teleop81
Reef
5L4#9
8L3#5
4L2#4
3L1 · trough#4
26Game pieces#26
BargeBlue +14
2Cage & park16
2Total endgame16
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalBlue +8
0Foul points0
115Total score123

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
57.30.4
48.048.4
Auto16.6
Teleop37.7
End3.1
red by 14.4
42.91.4
39.540.9
Auto4.9
Teleop35.0
End3.0
Second
2204
#24
36.70.4
34.935.3
Auto8.8
Teleop25.9
End2.1
blue by 6.1
8793
#15
42.81.4
36.537.9
Auto10.5
Teleop27.7
End4.6
Third
6814
#26
34.00.4
26.526.9
Auto8.3
Teleop24.3
End1.4
red by 3.2
8016
#19
30.81.4
26.427.7
Auto5.8
Teleop22.8
End2.3
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
93%Auto oddsEarned88%Auto oddsEarned
Coral
6%Coral oddsMissed13%Coral oddsEarned
Barge
27%Barge oddsMissed20%Barge oddsEarned