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Red131
510443.1
84043.7
415940.4
Blue169
947053.2
879342.8
84160.2
26%Model gave it74%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions13116750100150200250131169

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
Auto+7
Teleop+24
Endgame+32
Fouls+38
AutonomousBlue +7
6Leave6
4Coral scored#5
20Coral points27
26Total auto33
TeleoperatedBlue +17
20Coral scored#20
73Coral points72
2Processor algae#3
2Net algae#5
12Processor points18
8Net points20
20Algae points38
93Total teleop110
Reef
11L4#8
8L3#5
3L2#5
2L1 · trough#7
28Game pieces#33
BargeBlue +8
12Cage & park20
12Total endgame20
Penalties & totalBlue +38
0Foul points6
131Total score169

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
840
#10
43.70.1
43.243.3
Auto5.4
Teleop33.6
End4.7
blue by 16.4
841
#9
60.20.3
58.658.8
Auto12.4
Teleop40.3
End7.5
Second
43.10.1
43.043.1
Auto6.0
Teleop29.8
End7.3
blue by 10.2
53.20.3
51.651.9
Auto11.9
Teleop39.6
End1.7
Third
4159
#12
40.40.1
39.940.0
Auto12.9
Teleop26.3
End1.1
blue by 2.4
8793
#15
42.80.3
41.241.5
Auto10.5
Teleop27.7
End4.6