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Red24
1026014.7
560711.7
322920.6
Blue6
591915.2
551115.4
51908.0
72%Model gave it28%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions6954020406080100120246

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+9Auto
+12Teleop
+16Endgame
+18Fouls
AutonomousRed +9
0Leave0
2Coral scored#0
9Coral points0
9Total auto0
TeleoperatedRed +3
3Coral scored#2
9Coral points6
0Processor algae#0
0Net algae#0
0Processor points0
0Net points0
0Algae points0
9Total teleop6
Reef
2L4#1
2L3#1
1L2#0
0L1 · trough#0
5Game pieces#2
BargeRed +4
4Cage & park0
4Total endgame0
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +18
2Foul points0
24Total score6

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
3229
#11
20.64.2
19.615.4
Auto5.0
Teleop14.3
End1.3
red by 5.2
5511
#15
15.44.8
18.013.1
Auto2.9
Teleop11.8
End0.7
Second
14.76.2
19.813.6
Auto4.1
Teleop9.2
End1.4
blue by 0.5
5919
#17
15.24.8
15.210.3
Auto4.5
Teleop8.5
End2.2
Third
5607
#29
11.74.2
22.518.3
Auto2.8
Teleop7.9
End1.0
red by 3.6
5190
#30
8.04.8
16.311.5
Auto3.9
Teleop2.1
End2.0
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
43%Auto oddsMissed42%Auto oddsMissed
Coral
5%Coral oddsMissed5%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
47%Barge oddsMissed23%Barge oddsMissed