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Red129
265428.0
423034.9
645317.8
Blue81
419827.9
825527.8
563821.2
16%Model gave it84%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions57830204010012012981

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
0Auto0
+28Teleop
+40Endgame
+48Fouls
Autonomouslevel
9Leave0
0Coral scored#2
0Coral points9
9Total auto9
TeleoperatedRed +28
17Coral scored#12
60Coral points42
2Processor algae#1
4Net algae#3
12Processor points6
16Net points12
28Algae points18
88Total teleop60
Reef
8L4#4
3L3#5
2L2#2
4L1 · trough#3
23Game pieces#18
BargeRed +12
16Cage & park4
16Total endgame4
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +48
16Foul points8
129Total score81

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
4230
#36
34.93.2
29.032.3
Auto6.4
Teleop26.7
End1.8
red by 7.0
4198
#28
27.91.3
26.425.1
Auto5.0
Teleop16.4
End6.6
Second
2654
#39
28.03.2
21.424.6
Auto3.6
Teleop18.7
End5.7
red by 0.2
8255
#44
27.81.3
20.519.2
Auto2.3
Teleop23.2
End2.3
Third
6453
#46
17.85.4
4.910.3
Auto3.4
Teleop11.6
End2.8
blue by 3.4
5638
#52
21.21.3
25.524.3
Auto2.6
Teleop16.3
End2.3
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
64%Auto oddsMissed46%Auto oddsMissed
Coral
4%Coral oddsMissed6%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
31%Barge oddsEarned37%Barge oddsMissed