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Red196
908537.3
177892.9
188037.6
Blue222
514260.9
44975.4
138865.9
26%Model gave it74%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions175209100150250300350196222

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+3Auto
+4Teleop
Endgame+28
Fouls+26
AutonomousRed +3
9Leave3
7Coral scored#7
34Coral points37
43Total auto40
TeleoperatedRed +1
28Coral scored#31
101Coral points110
3Processor algae#2
7Net algae#6
18Processor points12
28Net points24
46Algae points36
147Total teleop146
Reef
10L4#16
14L3#10
4L2#8
7L1 · trough#4
45Game pieces#46
BargeBlue +32
4Cage & park36
4Total endgame36
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalBlue +26
2Foul points0
196Total score222

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
1778
#12
92.91.8
91.593.4
Auto18.7
Teleop71.4
End2.8
red by 17.5
449
#10
75.41.7
70.972.7
Auto13.2
Teleop52.8
End9.4
Second
1880
#42
37.61.8
39.441.2
Auto7.4
Teleop28.3
End1.9
blue by 28.3
1388
#26
65.91.7
63.965.6
Auto12.8
Teleop44.8
End8.3
Third
9085
#69
37.31.8
32.834.6
Auto7.7
Teleop24.7
End4.9
blue by 23.5
5142
#17
60.91.7
58.159.8
Auto11.8
Teleop39.9
End9.2
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
91%Auto oddsEarned98%Auto oddsEarned
Coral
77%Coral oddsEarned63%Coral oddsEarned
Barge
51%Barge oddsMissed79%Barge oddsEarned